Key Research Findings:
Project Value Emerges from Adaptive Processes
View the PD process as a complex adaptive system (CAS).
Rather than forming a singular plan for the project...
Plan its potential activities,
Set work policies, and
Let agents self-organize activities into the most valuable path to success.
Adaptive project control continuously rebalances cost, schedule, and performance relative to goals to maximize value as a project unfolds.
Activity (mode) frequency provides an indication of its current value to the project.
Changes in technologies, methods, and/or personnel can increase an activity’s probability of adding value.
Singular plans will be challenged to guide projects effectively.
Greater variety in potential outcomes increases project value (options theory).
Projects on paths unlikely to lead to success can be abandoned.
High-value PD processes may require more activity options, not fewer (as suggested by Lean).
Key Publication: P20
Instead of focusing on a singular plan, invest in planning and learning about the options, and let value emerge.
Simulating the above project 4000 times yielded 2550 unique paths, of which the most common one occurred only 3.8% of times, and of which 65% added sufficient value.