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Instead of measuring work done, measure the portion of the project’s value (being put) at risk (VaR) by potential outcomes that fail to meet its goals.
Do work in the project that reduces the risk of not getting what is ultimately wanted.
That is, reduce the portion of the project’s value (being put) at risk (VaR) by threatening uncertainties.
Rather than measuring “earned value” or “value added,” measure the removal of anti-value, the reduction of VaR.
Key Publications: T3, P9, P31, P39
Over project time, estimates of the best (top), worst (bottom), and most likely (middle) KPI outcomes are updated and compared with the goal (bold, horizontal line). As the possibility and magnitude of outcomes below the goal diminishes, so does the project’s VaR (dashed red line, quantified on the right-side y-axis).
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